Epidemic trend of Japanese encephalitisin in Shi Jiazhuang City,China,1949-2018
SONG Xian-bao1, GUO Jian-hua2, ZHANG Shi-yong2
1.Department of Continuing Education, National Health Commission Capacity Building and Continuing Education Center, Beijing 100086, China; 2.Epidemiology Department, Shijiazhuang Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang 050011, China
Abstract：The aim of this study is to analyze the trends over time in Japanese encephalitis(JE) using the pre-existing data in Shi Jiazhuang. The laboratory-confirmed and clinical-confirmed JE cases that occurred during 1949-2018 were extracted from Shi Jiazhuang epidemic compilation (1949-2018), National Notifiable Disease Information Reporting System(2004-2018) and Acute Meningitis and Encephalitis Syndrome Surveillance Project(2007-2018). The annual percent change (APC) in incidence and circular distribution method were performed to demonstrate the secular trends. And APC was estimated using linear regression analysis of the natural logarithm for the annual incidence. In 1949-2018, 5884 JE cases were reported in Shi Jiazhuang. 1119 death cases were found, with fatality rate of 19.02%. Farmers accounted for 51.16% of JE cases. Ratio of floating population was 40.85% of JE cases in 2001-2018. The range of annual incidence rate was changed from 0.03/lakh to 72.43/lakh with annual incidence of 1.72/lakh and APC of -2.57(t=6.38,P<0.001). Ratio of JE cases aged 1~14 years was 62.59% in 1949-1994, while in 2016-2018, cases aged 50 years and above was up to 76.56% of JE cases. The epidemic peak occurred each about 20 years. The time distribution was mainly in July, August, and September. The analysis of circular distribution method showed that the peak period of incidence changed from August 24th (August 1st ~ September 17th) in 1949-1999 (z=4712.17,P<0.001) to August 6th (July 18th~October 25th) in 2000-2018(z=146.10,P<0.001). There was significant difference on the peak between the period of 1949-1999 and that of 2000-2018(t=2.03,P<0.05). In conclusion, there was a remarkable declined incidence of JE in Shi Jiazhuang. The risk population of JE moves from younger children to the aged population. Floating population has becoming one of the susceptible population. The peak day has been occurred earlier and the duration of peak period has been broadening than before.
宋仙保, 郭建花, 张世勇. 1949-2018年石家庄市流行性乙型脑炎发病趋势分析[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2019, 35(11): 1047-1050.
SONG Xian-bao, GUO Jian-hua, ZHANG Shi-yong. Epidemic trend of Japanese encephalitisin in Shi Jiazhuang City,China,1949-2018. Chinese Journal of Zoonoses, 2019, 35(11): 1047-1050.
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2019, Vol. 35 
