Joinpoint regression analysis for the trends of brucellosis incidence in Northern and Southern Areas of China, 2004-2017
ZHANG Xia-nan1, ZHANG Hong-wei1, YE Meng2, XIE Li-jing1, JI Ying1, WANG Qiu-fang1
1.Yanjing Medical College, Capital Medical University, Beijing 101300, China; 2.National Institute for Occupational Health and Poison Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Abstract:To explore the trends of brucellosis incidence in northern and southern areas of China between 2004-2017. Brucellosis data was downloaded from China’s Public Health Science Data Sharing Center, the trends of incidence was described, and the trends was estimated via Joinpoint Regression Models. The incidence of brucellosis in the northern areas were roughly higher than the southern areas. The upward trends were found in both northern and southern areas, and the average annual percent change for the southern areas was higher than that for the northern area (AAPC=43.5% vs 7.5%). From August to February of the following year, the northern provinces showed a significant upward trend (P<0.05), while the southern provinces showed a fluctuating upward trend (P<0.05) in each month. Since 2015, the downward trend was found in the northern provinces in each month, while the upward trend was observed in southern provinces in each month. In conclusion, the current situation of brucellosis is still severe. The high incidence rate in the northern areas, and the continuous growth trend in southern areas were found.
张夏男, 张洪伟, 叶萌, 谢立璟, 纪颖, 王秋芳. 我国南北方2004-2017年布鲁氏菌病发病趋势的Joinpoint回归分析[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2020, 36(9): 758-762.
ZHANG Xia-nan, ZHANG Hong-wei, YE Meng, XIE Li-jing, JI Ying, WANG Qiu-fang. Joinpoint regression analysis for the trends of brucellosis incidence in Northern and Southern Areas of China, 2004-2017. Chinese Journal of Zoonoses, 2020, 36(9): 758-762.