ARIMA model in prediction of brucellosis incidence in Jiangxi Province,China
HUANG Yu-ping1,2, FU Wei-jie2, XIONG Chang-hui2, LIU Xiao-qing2, HU Guo-liang2
1. Public Health School of Nanchang University, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, China; 2. Institution for Emergency and Disease Prevention, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330029, China
Abstract:In order to build a prediction model of brucellosis epidemic trend in Jiangxi Province, this study used the monthly incidence of human brucellosis in Jiangxi Province from 2014 to 2017 to establish an optimal model under the condition of different differential times periods. At the same time, each model was used to predict the incidence of brucellosis in January 2018, and compared the fitting and prediction effects for each model. The results show that the optimal models of different difference conditions are AR(1), ARIMA(1,1,3), ARIMA(3,2,0) and ARIMA(3,3,0) respectively, Among which, the prediction error of model AR (1) on the number of cases in January 2018 was the smallest. It is indicated that the short-term prediction of brucellosis incidence in Jiangxi Province by ARIMA model is basically feasible.
黄玉萍,傅伟杰,熊长辉,刘晓青,胡国良. ARIMA模型在江西省布鲁氏菌病发病数预测中的应用[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2020, 36(3): 202-205.
HUANG Yu-ping, FU Wei-jie, XIONG Chang-hui, LIU Xiao-qing, HU Guo-liang. ARIMA model in prediction of brucellosis incidence in Jiangxi Province,China. Chinese Journal of Zoonoses, 2020, 36(3): 202-205.