Abstract：Abstract Objective: To predict the epidemic trends of typhus in Shijiazhuang, and provide scientific basis for making the further prevention and control measures of typhus. Method: Using the Excel software to do the secondary polynomial fitting according to the incidence of typhus from 2001 to 2009, and do extrapolation prediction based on the established equations of the incidence of typhus in 2010, and analyze the changing trends. Results: The established predictive model of the incidence of typhus is “y=0.428x2-5.9723x+21.524”, the correlation index R2 is 0.9576. The model fits well. Conclusion: There has a declining trend of the incidence of typhus in Shijiazhuang City in recent years. But since 2008, the incidence became a little increasing .The predictive incidence of typhus in 2010 of Shijiazhuang is 4.601 per hundred thousands.
2011, Vol. 27 
