Abstract：We aimed to construct time series model for forecasting the monthly cases of hepatitis E in Chongqing Municipality. The monthly cases of hepatitis E from 2005 to 2010 in Chongqing Municipality were analyzed by time series forecasting system in SAS 9.13. The model was established with the data from JAN in 2005 to DEC in 2010, and the data in 2011 was used for model validation. As a result, the Winters method-additive model was the relative by automatically fitting model. In brief, the monthly cases of hepatitis E in Chongqing can be fitted by Winters model, the goodness of fit is excellent, and the model is practical for forecasting and warning hepatitis E in Chongqing.
2013, Vol. 29 
