Long-term trend analysis of HFRS incidence in Hubei, China, 1971-2011
YAN Hong1, WANG Yue1, LIU Li2, XING Xue-sen2, LI Shi-yue1, GUAN Xu-hua2
1.Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China; 2.Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 420000, China
Abstract:We investigated the characteristics of long-term trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) incidence from 1971 to 2011 in Hubei, China and provided scientific basis for developing preventive measures. Statistical reports of HFRS and demographic data from 1971 to 2011 were collected. Excel, SPSS13.0 and MapInfo software were used to analyze these data and produce diagram. Results showed that from 1971 to 2011, the range of HFRS incidence fluctuated between 0.28/100 000 and 49.50/100 000. The average yearly incidence rate was 7.99/100 000 and the mortality rate was 0.48/100 000, the average fatality rate was 5.91%. Two distinct disease cycles appeared in the epidemic duration, and the incidence rates became stable after 1988. Most cases occurred between October and next January or between March and June. However, the seasonality of HFRS has changed over years. The ratio of cases in the two peaks maintained at a high level between 5 and 10 from 1971 to 1982; then it decreased to 2.2 in 1986 from 9.1 in 1982; it maintained at a level between 2 to 4 from 1987 to 1995, and kept around 1 from 1996 to 2009. In 1970s, high epidemic areas were mainly distributed in Wuhan City and surroundings. But it changed over time and now the high epidemic areas were mainly distributed in local areas within Xiangyang, Jingmen and Jingzhou cities. In terms of population distribution, more male were infected with HFRS than female and peasants were a high-risk population. Age distribution changed over time with the proportion of cases aged 40 or older gradually increasing and the proportion of cases aged 15-39 years decreasing. These results indicated that during the year from 1971 to 2011, the incidence rate of HFRS in Hubei gradually reduced and tended to be stable after two distinct cycles. The seasonality of HFRS had changed in middle 80’s and middle 90’s, with the gap between two peaks being narrowing. The epidemic areas had changed over time. The epidemic areas type possibly changed from Apodenmus agrarius playing the dominant role to mixed type that Apodenmus agrarius and house mouse being dominant simultaneously.
燕虹, 王岳, 刘力, 邢学森, 李十月, 官旭华. 1971-2011年湖北省肾综合征出血热发病长期趋势分析[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2015, 31(9): 892-898.
YAN Hong, WANG Yue, LIU Li, XING Xue-sen, LI Shi-yue, GUAN Xu-hua. Long-term trend analysis of HFRS incidence in Hubei, China, 1971-2011. Chinese Journal of Zoonoses, 2015, 31(9): 892-898.
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