Analysis on the Lag Effect of Influenza and Meteorological Factors in Fuzhou
ZHENG Yue -yan1, ZHU Han-song1, YE Wen-jing1, YANG Lin3, CHEN Cai-lin1, WU Sheng-gen1, CHEN Min-hong2, CHEN Wu1
1.Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonoses Research,Fuzhou 350001,China; 2.Fuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou 350001,China; 3.Fujian Province Climate Center ,Fuzhou 350001,China
Abstract:The lag effect between meteorological factorsand influenzawas investigated for providing scientific proof for predictionin Fuzhou city. The correlation and hysteresis were analyzed with the incidence of daily influenza and meteorological factors, such as average daily atmospheric pressure, average daily relative humidity, average daily air temperature and daily cumulative rainfall between the year of 2010 to 2018. A total of 7 207 cases of influenza were reported in Fuzhou. The sex ratio of the male and female was 1.25∶1. The age group of 4~ years old and 0~ years old accounted for the top two highest proportion, 37.82%and 29.91%, respectively.The highest risk of flu was at the temperature of 3 ℃ with 7 days delay (RR=1.51, 95%CI: 0.51~4.51), at the daily pressure of 982 hPa with 6 days delay (RR=2.08, 95%CI: 0.81~5.37) and at the wind speed of 9m/s with 14 days delay (RR=3.43,95%CI:1.28~6.63), respectively.The significant protective effect was associated with the greater daily cumulative rainfall with 1 day delay. The protective effect reached the peak at the lag of tenth day. On the contrary, the risk of getting flu was the highest when the delay was 0 day (RR=2.22, 95%CI: 0.39~12.72). The incidence of influenza might be affectedby the four meteorological factors with a certain lag effect in Fuzhou city. This model can be used in the flu prediction for early warning.
郑月燕, 祝寒松, 叶雯婧, 杨林, 陈彩粼, 吴生根, 陈敏红, 陈武. 福州市流行性感冒与气象因素滞后效应分析[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2019, 35(12): 1154-1159.
ZHENG Yue -yan, ZHU Han-song, YE Wen-jing, YANG Lin, CHEN Cai-lin, WU Sheng-gen, CHEN Min-hong, CHEN Wu. Analysis on the Lag Effect of Influenza and Meteorological Factors in Fuzhou. Chinese Journal of Zoonoses, 2019, 35(12): 1154-1159.
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