Analysis of the trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China from 2004 to 2017
LIU Tian1,2, TONG Ye-qing3, LIU Man3, WU Yang3, YAO Meng-lei1, HOU Qing-bo1, HUANG Ji-gui1, LUO Man2, CHEN Hong-ying3
1. Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou 434000, China;
2. Public Health Research Center, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434000, China;
3. Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
Abstract:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFRS cases in China in recent years and summarize the trend of change, data were collected from cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China from 2004 to 2017. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the overall situation of HFRS cases in China, the composition ratio of age groups and the incidence in different age groups. The seasonal and long-term trends of HFRS were compared by province. Piecewise linear regression and seasonal decomposition were used to analyze the trend and seasonality of HFRS in China and provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) from 2004 to 2017. A total of 178 237 HFRS cases and 1 753 deaths were reported in China from 2004 to 2017. The average incidence rate was 0.95/100,000, the mortality rate was 0.009/100,000, and the case-fatality rate was 0.98%. The overall incidence of HFRS in China has shown a downward trend (AAPC=-8.56%, 95%CI: -10.26%--6.86%). Guangdong Province, Hainan Province, Fujian Province and Hubei Province showed an upward trend (AAPC>0). The five regions with the highest incidence and mortality rates were Heilongjiang Province (5.80/100 000, 0.059/100 000), Shaanxi Province (4.48/100 000, 0.035/100 000), Jilin Province (3.79/100 000, 0.030 100 000), Liaoning Province (3.71/100 000, 0.027/100 000), and Shandong Province (1.57/100 000, 0.018/100 000). The incidence of HFRS has obvious seasonality, with bimodal characteristics. The highest peak occurred from October to January of the following year, and the number of reported cases in this period accounted for 46.76% of the total number of cases. The second peak occurred from April to July, and the number of reported cases accounted for 32.17% of the total number of cases. The incidence rate in the age group ≥60 years remained stable over the years, and the incidence rate in the age group 15-59 years showed an overall downward trend with time. From 2004 to 2017, the proportion of HFRS cases in the age group ≥60 years rose from 9.75% to 24.48%. The HFRS epidemic in China from 2004 to 2017 shows a downward trend. Central China and South China are key areas for the prevention and control of the HFRS epidemic in the future. The age group with a high incidence of HFRS has a tendency to shift to those aged ≥60. In the future, we should strengthen the vaccination of people ≥60 years old to ensure that the HFRS epidemic situation gradually decreases.
刘天, 童叶青, 刘漫, 吴杨, 姚梦雷, 侯清波, 黄继贵, 罗曼, 陈红缨. 2004——2017年全国肾综合征出血热变化趋势分析[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报, 2022, 38(6): 515-522.
LIU Tian, TONG Ye-qing, LIU Man, WU Yang, YAO Meng-lei, HOU Qing-bo, HUANG Ji-gui, LUO Man, CHEN Hong-ying. Analysis of the trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China from 2004 to 2017. Chinese Journal of Zoonoses, 2022, 38(6): 515-522.
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