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| Dynamic tendency and forecast of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shijiazhuang, China, 1984-2016 |
| ZHAO Shu-qing, ZHANG Shi-yong |
| Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang, 050011, China |
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Abstract We analyzed the dynamic tendency incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Shijiazhuang in 1984-2016, in order to forecast the incidence of HFRS in Shijiazhuang by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The incidence data of HFRS in Shijiazhuang from 1984 to 2016 were collected and the database was established with Excel 2003 software. SPSS 13.0 software was employed to construct an ARIMA model after model identification, parameter estimation and diagnosis test. The incidence of HFRS from 2017 to 2020 in Shijiazhuang was forecasted with this model. Results showed that the incidence of HFRS the trend of decline. The top five high-risk areas were Xinle, Xinji, Gaocheng, Shenze, and Zhaoxian county during the period of 1984-1994, and changed to Xingtang, Shenze, Pingshan, Yuanshi and Gaocheng county during the period of 2006-2016. The predicted incidence of HFRS in Shijiazhuang from 2017 to 2020 was 0.44/100 000 (95%CI: 0.00-7.39/100 000), 0.54/100 000 (95%CI: 0.00-8.83/100 000), 0.54/100 000 (95%CI: 0.00-9.33/100 000), 0.47/100 000 (95%CI: 0.00-9.46/100 000), respectively. The incidence of HFRS had changed and was the trend of decline. High-risk areas have changed from eastern region to north-western region. Forecast by ARIMA model are an increase tendency for the incidence of HFRS in Shijiazhuang from 2017 to 2020. Prevention and control strategies should be further strengthened.
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Received: 01 March 2018
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| Fund:Supported by the Key Project of Medical Scientific Research of Hebei (No. 20150922) |
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Corresponding Authors:
Zhang Shi-yong, Email: 1263591855@qq.com
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2018, Vol. 34 
